Monday, February 14, 2011

I Told You So

My last post talked about the protests in Egypt and the possibility of contagion. Well, those riots are over, and new ones begin. The military has taken over in Egypt, and while Hosni Mubarak is out, you have to wonder where the transition will go from here.

The protests have started in the country of my ancestors, Iran. The Green Movement of 2009 may be on the rise again, sparked by the success of the riots in Egypt. Of course, the irony is that the Iranian government fully endorsed the people's movement in Egypt saying, as the Financial Times reported, “If, God willing, the Egyptian nation could push this through, that would be an irremediable defeat for US policies in the region”.

The rule in Egypt may or may not be friendly to the U.S., so perhaps Khamenei was right on that point. He was wrong to think the protests emerged from religious convictions.

The question now is, "Will this Iranian revolt take hold?" So far Tunisia and Egypt have been the most resounding success stories, and the short time in which they both fell is equally shocking. Although, one might argue, Iran is better prepared for this. After all, the country did already fight the Green Revolution, and the iron grip of the ayatollah is perhaps the most suffocating of the Middle East. One good initial sign at least is that the U.S. appears to have thrown its full support into these protests far earlier than it did with Egypt. But will that be enough?

No comments:

Post a Comment